Monte Carlo Survival Engine

Probabilistic simulation for capital, cash‑flow, runway and structural resilience.

▼ Simulation & Revenue

Simulations

Horizon (months)

Start cash ($)

Initial revenue ($)

Fixed costs ($)

Debt payment ($)

Tax rate (%)

Currency

▼ Growth & Variability

Annual growth (%)8%

ⓘ Realistic range: -20% to +40% (beyond is exceptional)

Revenue volatility (%)15%

Customer concentration (%)35%

Recurring revenue (%)70%

Shock probability (%)10%

Shock severity (%)25%

▼ Costs & Debt

Variable costs (% revenue)30%

Annual cost inflation (%)3%

Cost volatility (%)5%

Emergency shock prob (%)5%

Emergency shock size ($)

Interest rate (%)6%

Variable-rate exposure (%)40%

Refinancing penalty (% revenue)15%

Monte Carlo cash paths – shaded area = uncertainty corridor (P10–P90)

Survival probability over time (thresholds: 50%, 25%, 10%)

Scenario comparison (survival probability)

Heatmap: Revenue Shock vs Cost Inflation